Weekend open thread: European superiority in transport

Frank, I am not familiar with a 2017 FEIS addendum. There was one in 2015. In fact ST insisted in the Nov. 2017 settlement agreement that there would be no further EIS or addendums (probably knowing Metro would demand the optimal service agreement that would require drop offs on the north side of N. Mercer Way).

Re: the 4200 boardings on Mercer Island all I can say is ST is not honest with numbers, whether it is opening dates, ridership estimates, farebox recovery rates, or project costs. Even post pandemic ST clings to that number, although ironically it is much closer to reality post pandemic.

In 2017, pre-settlement, ST “offered” Mercer Island three bus intercept configurations: limited/original (12 buses per peak hour); improved (16 buses per peak hour); and optimal (20 buses per peak hour). MI chose limited/original, and so the settlement agreement prohibits drop offs on the north side of N. Mercer Way because the south side can handle 12 buses/peak hour for drop offs and pick ups.

However in March (I believe) 2018 Metro told the city council it would need the optimal service configuration (20 articulated buses per peak hour) to meet ST’s ridership estimates. Metro estimated based on the intercept there would be 3000 Islander boardings. MI objected and filed suit.

ST then claimed total boardings on MI under the optimal service configuration would be 4200 per day. Let’s look at that number.

Islanders pre-pandemic made up around 1750 bus passengers (in part due to the poor first/last mile access a new commuter parking garage was going to improve). There is also a 453 stall park and ride that the traffic engineers stated represents 1.2 to 1.5 riders per stall, some from MI (around 47%). So between Islanders, and off-Islanders using the park and ride, figure around 2250 daily boardings on MI on the bus.

Most were peak, and most went to Seattle, like most transit ridership on the eastside, as was expected future ridership on East Link pre-pandemic. This was pre- Metro eastside transit restructure so the 554 was scheduled to truncate on MI too.

So basically, the entire Issaquah/Snoqualmie/North Bend/Sammamish Plateau ridership going to Seattle would truncate on MI. Does it sound reasonable that a total of 1950 riders (4200 minus 2250) out of an area of almost 150,000 residents would take the bus to MI to catch a train to Seattle when ST was estimating all riders from this area would take this route rather than go to S. Bellevue?

ST arrived at this number by manipulating the number of passengers per bus. An articulated bus can hold 65 seated passengers, and around 100-105 SRO, which is what the 550 and 554 and other buses from Issaquah were peak hour pre-pandemic. ST would use figures that excluded standing passengers, basically reducing the number of riders coming to Mercer Island by almost half.

MI’s argument at that time was why run 20 buses per peak hour which required drop offs on the north side of NMW if they are not full. Why not run 12 like originally agreed to.

Metro told the council because the estimated boardings on MI were closer to 10,000 to 14,000 per day, using ST’s East Link ridership estimates. So Metro (which is not keen on running half empty buses during peak hours from Issaquah to MI) told the council 20 articulated peak buses were necessary and would be full. ST claimed that since Metro was not a “party” to the settlement agreement it was not bound by the agreement’s prohibition on drop offs on the north side of N. Mercer Way.

That is why MI spent the next three years fighting over capacity, because we didn’t see how there would be capacity on East Link on MI, the last station going west, based on 20 articulated SRO buses arriving each peak hour. This was also the period of time during which post tensioning arose, possibly limited trains to 20 mph across the bridge span or two car trains (the hinge issues had been “solved”).

So ST’s 4200 total boarding estimate was low balled to counter MI’s argument that 20 articulated buses per peak hour would overwhelm MI and the station on MI, but ST was still stuck with its inflated ridership estimates of 43,000 to 52,000 total boardings per day on East Link that Metro was working off of.

Then of course the pandemic hit, well after MI and ST had begun another round of litigation.

Ross’s position that — post pandemic — 4200 total boardings on MI including the intercept might be in the ball park is very possible, especially after the eastside transit restructure. 4200 TOTAL daily boardings would be around 2000 from off-Island if the park and ride is full and Islanders using East Link equal buses pre-East Link, and would not need 20 buses per peak hour, or even 12, although Metro states that 12 buses are necessary to meet 15 minute peak bus frequency even if they are not full.

The concerns Islanders had pre-pandemic had to do with having 10,000 off-Islanders coming to the Island, capacity at the station which is quite narrow and 35′ below grade, and just traffic in general when N. Mercer Way is the key east-west arterial on MI from an articulated bus every three minutes going west, taking the roundabout, going east, then onto 80th.

Based on today’s bus ridership, especially cross lake to Seattle, I think 4200 boardings/day on MI is likely high, and the estimates for actual total ridership/boardings on East Link in 2024 will be closer to 25,000 per day.It hardly makes sense for East Link to have a higher estimate than actual ridership on Northgate Link.

Even if the cross-lake commuter does return I still think many from Issaquah/Snoqualmie/North Bend/Sammamish will drive to the S. Bellevue Park and Ride to catch East Link to avoid a bus and transfer with not great frequency on MI going east, even peak, and Bellevue and Issaquah for that reason will demand some one seat buses like the 630, at least to First Hill or SLU.

Today, all the litigation between MI and ST beginning in 2016 and still ongoing is about bus layovers on the north side of N. Mercer Way, which require drop offs on the north side of N. Mercer Way even though all parties agree that is dangerous because bus passengers will race across N. Mercer Way to access a train that runs at best every 8 minutes (there was a bad car/bike accident at this area yesterday).

I suppose the best irony is ST used the 4200 total boarding figure to low ball the number of riders on the intercept coming to MI, when ST will be lucky to reach 4200 total boardings on MI when East Link opens in 2024, if then. If today’s bus numbers are any indication future boardings on MI on East Link will be probably less than 3000/day, but you can never predict the future.